The future of war? Who knows?

This rant was inspired by a Rand Institute article: The U.S.-China Rivalry in a New Medieval Age, by Doug Erving.  Mar 19, 2024   

https://www.rand.org/pubs/articles/2024/the-us-china-rivalry-in-a-new-medieval-age.html??cutoff=true&utm_source=AdaptiveMailer&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7014N000001SnhoQAC&utm_term=00v4N00000X4bruQAB&org=1674&lvl=100&ite=286825&lea=504041&ctr=0&par=1&trk=a0wQK000003h5AnYAI 

Superpower governments and others are struggling to govern as tribal politics, economic inequality, social unrest and cultural division continue to grow within the US.  And in the Spring of 2024 a Pew Research Center survey found that less than 20 percent of the people answered saying they trusted our federal government to do the right thing.  

COVID should have brought Americans together but instead it continued to drive us apart.  This continued the polarization created by a US military reaction to the mass murder of American on Sept 11, 2001 that led to ‘permanent’ wars against a terrorist tactic that will never be defeated militarily. 

China and other totalitarian and democratic nations are experiencing inequality, slowing economic growth, and growing tensions.  Crime and corruption are rampant in many nations.  And populist leaders increasingly continue to rely on repression to maintain order and authority.  Nuclear armed nations security and defense budgets continue to grow as debts sore.

Conflicts can distract populations from their own problems, but most governments can ill afford launching any conflicts.  But competition continues between superpowers and sides are being picked.

One Rand analyst asserts that “Decisionmakers need to adopt a more neomedieval mindset. They cannot assume the public will get behind a war effort that requires real and sustained sacrifice. Other threats—a pandemic, climate change, political upheaval—will always vie for attention and resources. With nations everywhere facing the same challenges, partners and allies will also be stretched thin.” 

That suggests that the United States and China are unlikely to risk escalation and are more likely be in a long-running, low-intensity state of conflict.  Is that realistic given China and Russia both committed to expanding their territories and influence.   The Middle East could erupt if Israel takes out Iran’s nuclear capability.  A Chinese blockade of Taiwan is another possible conflict that could escalate.  It’s hard to imagine either clash being modest given the modern weapon systems involved.  And any stop or recovery period would be expensive and unstable.   Battles will likely be fought in cyberspace, economic arenas, and ‘gray zones’ just short of war. But the use of biological or chemical weapons should not be forgotten or ill prepared for.

Cold War or the world war analogies may not be useful anymore, but history has a way of rhyming.

The Rand analysts believe “The neomedieval era is here to stay,” he and his coauthors wrote. The trends they documented “are structural,” they added, “and return to the conditions of the industrial nation-state is impossible…. The sooner U.S. decisionmakers and planners recognize and accept the reality of the neomedieval era, the sooner appropriate and effective strategies and plans can be developed.”

American policy makers are not known for heeding warnings or wise recommendations.  But these analyst’s five “Trends That Define Neomedievalism” below are worth serious consideration given they are likely to “shape the rivalry between China and the United States” in this new era:

1.       Weakening states: Governments will struggle to maintain legitimacy; ensure domestic security; and provide levels of goods, services, and opportunities their people expect.

2.       Fragmenting societies: National spirit will erode as competing group identities, such as sub- and transnational communities, gain traction.

3.       Imbalanced economies: Growth will be concentrated in a few sectors. Problems of entrenched inequality, stagnant social mobility, and illicit economies will worsen.

4.       Pervasive threats: The proliferation of dangers, such as natural disasters, infectious disease, and violent nonstate actors, will create a sense of permeating risk, even as the possibility of conflict with rival states persists.

5.       Informalization of warfare: Military forces will increasingly consist of professional troops augmented by contractors, mercenaries, and sympathetic armed groups such as militias. Older methods of fighting, such as intrastate conflicts, sieges, and irregular conflict, will be revived.

Russia is learning all of this the hard way.  It rolled its tanks and troops into Ukraine as if it were fighting a conventional, industrial-age war.... Since then, it has struggled to carry out even a partial mobilization. It has gone to ever-greater lengths to avoid any sense of sacrifice at home. Instead, it has bolstered its battered army with mercenaries and militia, some loyal to criminal warlords. It has targeted civilian areas, hoping to break Ukraine's will to fight, rather than attempt any more knockout blows with armored columns. And it has brought back that most medieval of tactics, the siege.”

But advances in weapons systems that will soon be accelerated with AI leading to changes in warfare we can only imagine...I wouldn’t count on siege tactics being relevant much longer.   Future historians may “look back at the Russian war as a turning point, the end of one chapter and the start of another” but one would be a fool to think “the story” will pick up “where it left off two centuries ago.” “The novelty here isn't the arrival of a new medieval age” is correct.  But unless the world changes the foundation of the western ‘Westphalian system established 400 years ago, humanity may not get another 20 years to gain the wisdom needed to create a truly global system of governance that puts the protection of human freedoms and security with sustainable environmental progress as the bottom line for the future of civilized human experiences. 

The ‘Peace’ Movement has failed. Why? And what is urgently needed.

 

The ‘Peace’ Movement has failed.  Why?   

"The battle for the world is the battle for definitions."  -- Thomas Szasz

(1920-2012) Hungarian-American Professor of Psychiatry

 Rotary International made Peace its first mission during the RI Convention in 1921.  There it adopted a resolution to promote peace laying the groundwork for Rotary's ongoing commitment to peacebuilding, conflict resolution, and prevention efforts worldwide.  It incorporated into its constitution the goal “to aid in the advancement of international peace and goodwill through a fellowship of business and professional men of all nations united in the Rotary ideal of service.”  It has not changed in over 100 years.   [This statement needs a change!]

 The roots of the global peace movement goes back centuries.  It gained significant momentum in the 19th and 20th centuries with movements like the anti-war efforts during the Napoleonic Wars, the formation of peace societies in the 19th century, then widespread activism for peace during and after both World Wars, the Vietnam war, the Cold war, and the Global War Against Terrorism.  It’s likely the concept of advocating for peace has existed throughout human history in various forms.

 "For peace to reign on Earth, humans must evolve into new beings who have learned to see the whole first." - Immanuel Kant

 

Many people have growing concerns that another World War is feasible as reactionary, retaliatory, and escalating trends of violence are reported with no cooling down in sight as superpower democracies and totalitarian nations are picking sides.  Each side is vying for collaboration and access to dozens of other nonaligned states.  Even with fragile underdeveloped nations. Some with civil wars or nearing one.

Add to this, a rising tide of disinformation determined to increase chaos within democracies already struggling.  Some of our adversaries are using the truth about our democracy’s disfunction hoping to recruit other countries into their axis.  Meanwhile, most people are thinking about two things.  Governments can’t always be trusted.  And things are only going to worsen.  Even worse, few minds grasp the rapid evolution of weaponry’s increasing power, speed, affordability, availability, and difficulty in detecting or defending against it.  Plus the dilemma of AI’s acceleration of all of this.    Advocating for PEACE has failed and another approach is urgently needed.  What people really want most is to survive and thrive.  That requires freedom and security.  Peace has not ensured either. 

“Poverty is the worst form of Violence”. Mahatma Ghandhi

 “The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their proper name.”  ― Confucius

 Humanity has always had the answer.  But those in power usually chose other options.  And ‘we the people’ have yet to unite and insist that government apply the fundamental principles needed to prevent violence.  Like ‘a child should not die before their parent(s)’.   Humanity eradicated smallpox which killed more people in 70 years of the last century than all the wars, revolutions, and genocides combined during that same entire century!  We’ve held dozens Olympic games with every nationality, race, religion, and gender competing, and only once was there violence, and it was from an outside source.  Wealthy nations have engineered technologies that put humans on the moon and returned them safely. Collectively we have the means to educate every person consistently and cheaply on earth - if governments allow it.  We also have the capacity to meet all other basic needs within hours, using sustainable delivery systems with humanities unprecedent global wealth.  Why don’t we?  What causes this stubborn and dangerous global disconnect between meeting the basic needs of every man, woman, and child - and the increasingly unstable and increasingly lethal conditions that our species, and many other species, now appear trapped in?

 What the world most needs at this moment is a means of convincing human beings to embrace the whole of the species as their moral community. For this we need to develop an utterly nonsectarian way of talking about the full spectrum of human experience and human aspiration." - Sam Harris

 The answer is quite simple, affordable, and ignored.  Unfortunately, most minds resist change.  Why won’t people use universally defined words to form and express their personal or political beliefs that could avoid violence.  Why do most minds fail to distinguish between ambiguous and unambiguous words?  Why does our mind’s capacity to believe anything lead to violently defending a belief?   The minds of scientists and engineers appear to work differently.  They usually use their minds for finding and solving problems, not creating them.  Sadly, they make amazing things like cellphones or nuclear weapons yet rarely make decisions on how they are used.  Song writers, poets, politicians, and preachers freely use words anyway they like.  Some inspire and motivate people to do great things. Others to commit genocide.  Yet the fundamental principle underlying every religion - the Golden rule – is rarely practiced.  But now this is urgently needed to make wise use of science and every technology.  What will it take to bind the hearts and minds of all humanity to do what is possible, affordable, and in everyone’s best interest?   Scientists and engineers rely on the “Laws of Nature.”  The signers of the Declaration of Independence also cited the laws of “Nature’s God” in that profound universal appeal.  Catastrophically they failed to use both sets of fundamental laws in framing the Constitution.  That resulted in more American deaths than all the wars our nation has fought in since then, combined!

 The sustainable freedoms and security of humanity into the future is possible.  But only if we prioritize taking care of nature and each other.  This is what Thomas Paine advocated in his pamphlet Common Sense.   He didn’t see earth as a spaceship.  But common-sense dictates that it is.  With nature as our basic life support system.  The origins of Earth, nature, and humans (God, evolution, or both) does not matter.  What does is the agency that ‘We the people’ have always had to ensure our healthy and sustainable future.

 ‘The Declaration of Independence is our Apple of Gold.  The Constitution is its frame of silver.’  Abraham Lincoln

“Like apples of gold in settings of silver Is a word spoken in right circumstances.”  Proverbs 25:11 New American Standard Bible

 Memorize the following 11 words.  ‘Everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable. We need a global effort.’   Define “everything”?  It actually defines itself.  That is what ‘autological’ words do.  And each of these 11 words are autological.  This phrase above is the fundamental law of the universe yet unknown to most minds.  We believe we and other things are independent.  But independence is just a word or concept that we invented.  It exists nowhere in the known universe except as an dumb idea in our minds and applied foolishly to almost everything as a cherished principle.  

"The action of even the tiniest creature leads to changes in the entire Universe." Nikola Tesla

"Humankind has not woven the web of life. We are but one thread within it. Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves. All things are bound together. All things connect." - Chief Seattle, Duwamish

“A great part of that order which reigns among mankind is not the effect of government. It had its origin in the principles of society and the natural constitution of man. It existed prior to government, and would exist if the formality of government was abolished. The mutual dependence and reciprocal interest which man has upon man, and all parts of a civilized community upon each other, create that great chain of connection which holds it together. The landholder, the farmer, the manufacturer, the merchant, the tradesman, and every occupation, prospers by the aid which each receives from the other, and from the whole. Common interest regulates their concerns, and forms their laws; and the laws which common usage ordains, have a greater influence than the laws of government. In fine, society performs for itself almost everything which is ascribed to government.  – Thomas Paine, Rights of Man [1791]

"A human being is part of the whole, called by us 'Universe'; a part limited in time and space. He experiences himself, his thoughts and feelings, as something separated from the rest - a kind of optical delusion of his consciousness. This delusion is a kind of prison for us, restricting us to our personal desires and affection for a few persons nearest us. Our task must be to free ourselves from this prison by widening our circle of compassion to embrace all living creatures and the whole nature in its beauty. Nobody is able to achieve this completely, but striving for such achievement is, in itself, a part of the liberation, and a foundation for inner security."   -Albert Einstein.  As quoted in Quantum Reality, Beyond the New Physics, p. 250.

“Before you finish eating breakfast in the morning, you've depended on more than half of the world. This is the way our universe is structured, this is its interrelated quality. We aren't going to have peace on earth until we recognize this basic fact of the interrelated structure of all reality.” Martin Luther King, Jr.

 ********************

Peace has many definitions.  How’s that working out for us?   Democracy has many also. 

 “There is a natural obstacle to progress in abstract thought, which has often delayed rational inquiry; an erroneous concept or theory may be expressed in terms which embody the error, so that thinking is blocked until the misleading words are discarded from the given context.”   Isabel Paterson

Freedom is real!  We are free to do anything we want but we (and everything around us) will not be free of the consequences.  Those consequences can be helpful or harmful to everything’s health or security.  The possibility of it being helpful increases with the virtue of the action.  And vice versa.   In summary, do your best to help nature and each other.  Or prepare for the harmful consequences.

“You cannot get through a single day without having an impact on the world around you. Whatever you do makes a difference.  You have to decide what kind of difference you want to make” Jane Goodall. 

The essential solution for solving our problems is establishing consistent working definitions of words and phrases used for engineering anything and everything that humanity needs and wants for sustainability.  Then we can still leave all words for poets, pastors, song writers, and conspiracy theorists for expressing themselves as they feel the need. 

"How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!" – Samuel Adams, letter to John Pitts [January 21, 1776]

 “But if thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.’  – George Orwell

 “When I use a word, it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.”

Humpty Dumpty, Through the Looking Glass.

 "That's not a lie, it's a terminological inexactitude."  -- Alexander Haig

"Political language -- and with variations this is true of all political parties, from Conservatives to Anarchists -- is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind."   George Orwell  [Eric Arthur Blair]  British author

"False words are not only evil in themselves, but they infect the soul with evil." — Socrates

“The word ‘Democracy’ is a chimera in our politics. It means whatever the speaker says it does.”  Pericles, Athenian Statesman. 

"We recognize the force of the argument that the effects of war under modern conditions may be felt in the economy for years and years, and that if the war power can be used in days of peace to treat all the wounds which war inflicts on our society, it may not only swallow up all other powers of Congress but largely obliterate the Ninth and the Tenth Amendments as well."   -- Justice William O. Douglas 

"Throughout history, it has been the inaction of those who could have acted; the indifference of those who should have known better; the silence of the voice of justice when it mattered most; that has made it possible for evil to triumph": Haile Selassie

Alternative word(s) to replace “Peace” or “Democracy”?  The Rule of Law!  Make Law not War!. No Justice...no peace.   No peace with poverty.   Peace does not ensure freedom or security.  It is just the period of time that allows each side to rearm.

 

 

Community Peace quotes:   

 

 "Peace is not merely a distant goal that we seek, but a means by which we arrive at that goal." - Martin Luther King Jr.

 

"If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then he becomes your partner." - Nelson Mandela

 "The first peace, which is the most important, is that which comes within the souls of people when they realize their relationship, their oneness with the universe and all its powers, and when they realize that at the center of the universe dwells the Great Spirit, and that this center is really everywhere, it is within each of us." - Black Elk

 "An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind." - Mahatma Gandhi

 "If we have no peace, it is because we have forgotten that we belong to each other." - Mother Teresa

 Peace is a biblical concept that means more than the absence of war or conflict. It is derived from the Hebrew word shalom, which means "to be complete" or "to be sound". Peace implies a condition of freedom from disturbance, both outwardly and inwardly, and a state of well-being in relation to both man and God. Peace is a gift from God and a fruit of the Spirit.

 "We do not want a PAX Americana enforced on the world by American weapons of war. Not the peace of the grave or the security of the slave. I am talking about genuine peace, the kind of peace that makes life on earth worth living, the kind that enables men and nations to grow and to hope and to build a better life for their children -- not merely peace for Americans but peace for all men and women -- not merely peace in our time but peace for all time."  - John F. Kennedy (1963)

 To maintain peace throughout the world, the grounds for conflict should be reduced as much as possible. The first step in this direction must be to respect and protect private property throughout the world. The ideal would also include complete freedom of trade and freedom of movement. Political boundaries would no longer be determined under threat of military conquest or aggressive economic nationalism, but rather by legal plebiscite, i.e., by vote of the individuals concerned. In such a world, the national sovereignty under which one lived or worked would be relatively immaterial.  – Bettina Bien Greaves, The Freeman [September 1979]

“Peace is the natural state of man, war the temporary repeal of reason and virtue.”  – Hans F. Sennholz

 

ChatGPT4 definitions of three areas of Peace

 1. **Inner Peace:** A state of mental and emotional tranquility, where an individual experiences a sense of calmness, balance, and harmony within oneself, often achieved through self-reflection and mindfulness practices.

 2. **Community Peace:** The harmony and well-being within a local or societal group, involving positive relationships, cooperation, and a lack of conflict among its members, contributing to a stable and thriving community.

 3. **Global Peace:** The absence of conflict and violence on a global scale, characterized by diplomatic resolutions, cooperation among nations, and the promotion of justice and equality to foster a secure and harmonious world.

 Other areas of peace could include environmental peace, referring to the balance and sustainability in the natural world, and technological peace, emphasizing ethical and responsible use of technology to prevent harm and conflicts.

 My Summary:

The idea that peace can only be achieved by taking care of nature and each other is rooted in the recognition of interconnectedness and interdependence. However, achieving this vision requires a collective shift in mindset and behavior, as well as systemic changes at various levels of society.

 Our challenge is that short-term and special interests often take precedence over long-term sustainability and well-being of people and nature.  Successfully addressing complex issues such as environmental degradation, social inequality, and conflict resolution needs multifaceted approaches and collaboration across different sectors and stakeholders.  Thus the UN 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

 Moreover, there are competing priorities and interests that can hinder progress, including economic considerations, political power dynamics, and cultural differences. Overcoming these obstacles necessitates sustained efforts to promote awareness, foster empathy, and enact policies that prioritize the well-being of both people and the planet.

 Ultimately, achieving peace through the care of nature and each other requires a fundamental shift in values, priorities, and actions, as well as a commitment to building a more just, equitable, and sustainable world for present and future generations.

 If you would like the text of these quotes, please send an email to ‘chuck@igc.org

Predicting the next conflicts?

In introducing the 'Peace' chapter in my book (available free by email - chuck@igc.org) there appears to be only two reliable means of predicting what conflicts will happen next in our world on fire and growing chaos.  The CIA and ChatGPT.  

In 1994 a CIA study was commissioned by President Clinton after the Black Hawk Down incident in Somalia.   It’s best known as the "State Failure Task Force" or "Political Instability Task Force”.  The goal was to provide early warning to policymakers so they could take action to prevent or mitigate state failure.   The task force analyzed dozens of various factors such as economic decline, civil unrest, and ethnic tensions to identify specific risks in different nations.

It identified several warning signs, and its findings were published in reports and were used to inform U.S. foreign policy decisions.  The task force's methods were not perfect, but it represented an effort to use data and analysis to anticipate and address instability around the world.  It was not authorized to apply these to the US.  The several key factors that were associated with state failure were obvious general factors like economic decline and economic instability.  Countries facing economic hardships, such as high inflation, unemployment, and debt, were more likely to experience instability and collapse.  The task force also found that political instability in countries with weak or ineffective governments, high levels of corruption, and frequent changes in leadership were also at greater risk of state failure because it often contributed to social unrest and conflict.  In addition, countries with “social fragmentation” like deep-seated ethnic, religious, or cultural divisions were also more likely to experience state failure by leading to civil unrest, violence, and challenges in governance.  The task force also considered a range of other economic, political, and social indicators in its analysis, but these three factors were consistently found to be among the most significant predictors of state failure.

 

The long paragraph above is a summary of a ChatGPT response I received after asking for details on that CIA study.  I offered a correction with the information I’d remembered after 3 decades.  Here’s ChatGTP’s response.

 

“Thank you for the correction! Yes, the State Failure Task Force did find that infant mortality rates, access to free trade, and stages of democracy were among the top factors associated with state failure. These factors reflect the importance of health, economic, and political conditions in assessing a nation's stability.”

Then I asked it if “each of these reflect violations of basic human rights that could have  been understood in the context of the Universal Declaration of Human rights” and ChatGPT’s response was, “Absolutely, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) sets out fundamental human rights to be universally protected. Violations of these rights, as seen in factors like infant mortality rates, access to free trade, and stages of democracy, can be understood through the lens of the UDHR. For instance, access to healthcare, a factor in infant mortality rates, is closely tied to the right to a standard of living adequate for health (Article 25). Access to free trade can relate to economic rights (Article 23) and stages of democracy to political rights (Articles 21, 29). Understanding these issues in the context of the UDHR can help in addressing and preventing violations of human rights.” 

 

Next I asked “if you were to create a comprehensive list of specific elements that would lead to nation state failures, war and famine, what would be included?’  ChatGPT answered “Creating a comprehensive list of factors leading to nation or state failures, as well as war and famine, requires consideration of various dimensions. Here's a list of key elements:

1.      Political Instability and Corruption: Weak governance, political repression, and widespread corruption can undermine state legitimacy and effectiveness.

2.      Economic Factors: This includes economic mismanagement, unequal distribution of wealth, high levels of poverty, and economic dependence on a narrow range of exports.

3.      Social Factors: Ethnic or religious tensions, social inequality, lack of social cohesion, and discrimination can destabilize a nation.

4.      Environmental Issues: Environmental degradation, natural disasters, and climate change can lead to food and water scarcity, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities.

5.      External Influences: Foreign intervention, exploitation, and interference in domestic affairs can disrupt stability.

6.      Security Challenges: Internal conflicts, terrorism, and armed insurgency can threaten state stability.

7.      Resource Scarcity: This includes issues like water scarcity, which can lead to conflicts over resources.

8.      Health Crises: Pandemics, high disease burdens, and lack of access to healthcare can strain a nation's stability.

9.      Infrastructure and Development: Poor infrastructure, lack of development, and inadequate access to education and basic services can hinder progress.

10.   Historical Factors: Legacy of colonialism, past conflicts, and unresolved grievances can contribute to instability.

11.   International Relations: Tensions with neighboring countries, regional power dynamics, and global geopolitical shifts can impact stability.

12.   Demographic Pressures: Rapid population growth, youth bulges, and high dependency ratios can strain resources and services.

13.   Legal and Judicial System: Weak rule of law, lack of accountability, and ineffective judicial systems can erode trust in institutions.

14.   Media and Information Influence: Misinformation, propaganda, and lack of media freedom can contribute to social and political unrest

Addressing these factors requires comprehensive strategies that promote good governance, sustainable development, social cohesion, and respect for human rights.

 

Last I asked ChatGPT:  “Would achieving the United Nations 17 Sustainable Development Goals be the best means of Achieving a comprehensive strategy?”  It replied:  “Achieving the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) could indeed be a crucial step in pursuing a comprehensive strategy to address the factors that lead to nation or state failures, as well as war and famine. The SDGs are interconnected and aim to address a wide range of social, economic, and environmental challenges. By working towards these goals, nations can:

1.      Promote Peaceful and Inclusive Societies: SDG 16 specifically focuses on promoting peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, providing a framework for addressing issues related to governance, rule of law, and human rights.

2.      End Poverty and Hunger: SDGs 1 and 2 aim to end poverty and hunger, addressing key drivers of instability and conflict.

3.      Ensure Health and Well-being: SDG 3 focuses on ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all ages, which can help address health crises and improve overall resilience.

4.      Achieve Gender Equality: SDG 5 aims to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls, addressing social inequalities that can contribute to instability.

5.      Ensure Sustainable Economic Growth: SDGs 8, 9, and 10 focus on promoting sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth, fostering innovation, and reducing inequalities within and among countries.

6.      Protect the Environment: SDGs 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15 focus on sustainable cities and communities, responsible consumption and production, climate action, life below water, and life on land, respectively, addressing environmental challenges that can lead to resource scarcity and conflicts.

7.      Strengthen Partnerships: SDG 17 emphasizes the importance of partnerships for the goals, recognizing the need for collaboration among governments, businesses, and civil society to achieve sustainable development.

While achieving the SDGs is not a panacea for all global challenges, it provides a comprehensive framework for addressing the root causes of nation or state failures, as well as war and famine. It requires coordinated efforts at the national and international levels to implement policies and initiatives that promote sustainable development and address the interconnected nature of these challenges.

 

It appears ChatGTP is wiser than the any global intelligence agencies, US political parties, peace movements, or the majority of US media outlets concerned about the future of democracy, the global protection of human rights, addressing the root causes of conflict, ensuring global health, sustaining capitalism, or human 

DEFENSE ONE opinion piece recognizes things are getting worse.

Defense One:  IDEAS.  

"Authoritarians are playing to win. America can’t if we don’t show up."  Two retired four-stars lay out the case for the National Security Emergency Package currently being considered in the House.  PHILIP BREEDLOVE and SAMUEL J. LOCKLEAR III | MARCH 16, 2024

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2024/03/authoritarians-are-playing-win-america-cant-if-we-dont-show/395008/          The comments within the brackets are my own and highlighted yellow. 

[The following ideas are only half baked.  Security in the real interdependent world is an illusion.  And defense without ‘justice for all’  is simply unsustainable]

A global chess game is underway and America’s security depends on it [winning it in a sustainable way]. Congressional negotiators are counting votes to break gridlock and fund America’s national security. As they do, thousands of miles away, an opposite set of deliberations are afoot, from Moscow to Tehran to Beijing, not to build a secure America—but to work against the interests of our citizens. [Certainly not future generations. Given that both sides are in a perpetual struggle to protect their national sovereignty instead protecting human rights and the environment.  And neither side is considering the inevitable consequences of the escalating evolution of weapons, war, pathogens, environmental degradation, corruption, economic debt instability, political polarization, and dysfunctional political system – each causing disruptive problems that cannot be controlled by military power, diplomacy, hopes, or prayers...thing are not going to end well for anyone.  Cascading global failures are inevitable playing this zero-sum game between nations, corporations, and organizations.  It is simply unsustainable on this planet where everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable. And only a global effort like the eradication of smallpox can save us and the generations to come from hell on earth.   

 As military officers who [bravely] spent our lives in uniform and oversaw U.S. military operations at NATO and in the Pacific, we believe today’s world is more complicated, more threatening, and most of all more interconnected than any we’ve witnessed [because their minds believed that peace through strength between ‘independent’ nations in an irreversibly interdependent world could keep them free and safe.  But that is not the way reality works.  And wars lost by both the US and the USSR should have confirmed that.]

 In real time, Iran is seizing the opportunity to empower Houthi extremists in the Red Sea and Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon. As North Korean-built missiles fall on Ukrainian targets, Putin welcomes this rising regional instability, distracting the world from the battlefield between Kiev and Crimea. All the while, Beijing watches closely to determine whether the invasion of Ukraine is either a cautionary tale or a greenlight when it comes to Taiwan.

 As the Senate passed the National Security Emergency Package last month, Senator Thom Tillis, R-N.C., aptly described this moment, “If we walk away, you will see the alliance that is supporting Ukraine crumble. You will ultimately see China become emboldened. And I am not going to be on that page of history.” As America’s national security hangs in the balance, the package now being considered in the House is essential to counter those who would do us harm. And with Putin making Ukraine’s economy another theater of war, the critical U.S. civilian economic and humanitarian assistance—alongside security assistance—will be just as vital to ensure Ukraine can continue to defend its territory and prevent Russian forces from pushing further into Europe.

 Meanwhile, other crises metastasize. Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of Europe” and the invasion is one of the core reasons that 9 in 10 people face acute levels of food insecurity in hot spots already affected by fragility and conflict – countries like Sudan, Yemen, and Syria. The last time the world faced such a significant food crisis, it helped contribute to bloody conflict across the Middle East and North Africa and the rise of ISIS. Currently, 150 million people are facing “acute food insecurity” and 108 million have been forced to flee their homes worldwide.

Likewise, China is on the march, accumulating influence and economic riches across Africa and the Global South. Beijing has upped its global development investment more than fivefold over 15 years, and is already beginning to reap the dividends. From critical minerals in Africa to relationships in Latin America and southeast Asia, the race is on for the export markets that will define this century.

 In our country, meanwhile, isolationist [and some ‘peace’ activists] headwinds are animating our nation’s politics.  Some of our fellow citizens believe our nation should turn inward. But we’ve learned the hard way that our two oceans will not protect us from the threats of the 21st century. And while the notion that politics should stop at the water’s edge may no longer be quite as sacrosanct, it's why we are part of a group of more than 260 retired three- and four-star generals and admirals who continue to speak out around the country on why America has to engage in the world to stop threats before they arrive on our shores.

 Some argue that democracy is not suited to this moment. We disagree. We believe that the vibrancy of our democracy earns the United States a credibility that Putin, Kim Jong Un, and the Ayatollah can only dream of: admiration and allies, not just transactional relationships. But you can’t win if you don’t show up. [no!  we can only win this chess game if we can stop the growing assault on our national borders which are impervious to pandemics, violent extremists, acerating extreme weather events, the rapid extinction of species, and the economic and migratory consequences hunger, wars, genocides, corruption, and cruelty.}  

 The world is watching the chessboard to see whether the United States can deliver—on security, on economic competition, and on humanitarian crises—in the way that’s always defined and differentiated us from the competition. Over the last year, it’s no secret that our allies have been stepping up—as they should—with European countries now committing $3 for every $1 the U.S. has contributed to Ukraine. Yet the stakes for our own interests are too high for our nation to sit on the sidelines.

 We agree with Speaker Mike Johnson when he affirmed that “we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to march through Europe.” How can we get there? Passing the National Security Emergency Package in the House is critical, not just for the reinforcement it must bring to the Pentagon and our comrades in arms, but equally so to their partners at the State Department and USAID.

 These investments [plus funding and achieving the SDGs ASAP] are essential to meet the civilian security, economic, and humanitarian needs rapidly piling up before those too demand military solutions. Together, these agencies—defense and civilian—make up America’s team and they need our urgent support.

In national security, one may debate causality against correlation, but there are no coincidences. When Moscow hosted Hamas at the Kremlin after the barbaric October 7 terrorist attacks, and Xi Jinping hosted Putin in Beijing during China’s recent 130-country conference, and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un toured Russian missile sites, the message was clear.

The authoritarians are playing to win on the global chessboard, and they’re acting in lockstep. [where our military, all political parties, and our nation's progressive movements continue act in their own mission’s interest.  United we are not. 

Passing a budget up to the challenge is the first way to put us on a path to check our adversaries and competitors—and to protect our national interests, our citizens, and our way of life. [our natural resources infrastructure that our future security depends on is not a priority]

 Philip Breedlove, a retired U.S. Air Force general, commanded NATO Supreme Allied Command from 2013 to 2016.

Sam Locklear, a retired U.S. Navy admiral, commanded U.S. Pacific Command from 2012 to 2015.

Democracy. Freedom. Security. Pick two.

 It's been a long time since I've blogged. I've been doing the last edits on my book I started over 24 years ago.  Below are ten flaws of the US Constitution which is in the 7th chapter before I dive into the cognitive reasons collected to better understand why we don't learn to change our mind when our life and lives depend on it. Feed back is always welcomed.  Even anonymously. 

The fundamental principles found in the Declaration of Independence can lead us to a sustainable future.

It is our flawed Constitutional principles that dictate who and where we are now. 

Democracy.  Freedom.  Security.   Pick two.   

Nature holds all three as incompatible.  Because a majority of people still believe they are independent. 

FYI:  There is one way to have all three.  Just remember that Nature always gets the last vote.

The American people and the rest of the world need to make an urgent decision about democracy.  You might sense that with all the acerating chaos in the world that time is running out.  Your senses are correct.  Nearly everything humanity is doing as nations and collectively now is simply unsustainable.

With the evolution of weapons, wars, pathogens, environmental degradations, violent extremism, refugee flows, failing democracies, polarizing partisan politics, and economic gap are all connected, interdependent, and vulnerable - the solution must be global.  This is not my view. 

It was the assertion of Jen Easterly, the Director of CISA (the Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency October 29, 2021).  CISA is the newest US Federal Agency, established by the Trump Administration in 2018.  “Everything is connected, everything is interdependent, so everything is vulnerable.... And that’s why this has to be a more than whole of government, a more than whole of nation [effort]. It really has to be a global effort....”

This reality was echoed again this week on C-Span MARCH 11, 2024. everal high-ranking US Intelligence officials testified on Global Threats before the Senate Select Intelligence Committee. Their introductory remarks are the most complete, accurate, comprehensive, and brief assessment that I've ever heard in the dozens of briefings of threat hearings I've listened to over the last two decades.

https://www.c-span.org/video/?534027-1/intelligence-officials-testify-global-threats-senate-cmte

 

Chairman Senator Warner (D) briefly summarizes the threat environment we have today and how threats are rapidly changing, increasing, speeding up, and connected -- in addition to traditional national security threats we still have.

 

Vice Chair Mark Rubio (R) introductory remarks on various threats were long. His conclusion was short  ‘one of the greatest dangers we face is the inability to see how all these things are interconnected...and one of the greatest challenges we face is to deal with them as if they are interconnected...that’s what life will be like on this planet for the next generation.  It will be determined very much by what we do or fail to do here over the next 2 to 3 years ... with all the issues ... before us today.

 

So what two are you choosing?  Democracy, Freedoms, Security?

Or Freedom, security, and the Global Rule of Law?  With the RoL merging enforceable laws made by a democratic process, applied equally to all people, and limited to protecting human rights and the environment globally.

 

Democracy is an ambiguous word meaning different systems and priorities for different local or national governments.  So as a noun democracy always turns to tyranny of the majority.  Thus, Thomas Jefferson defined democracy as ‘two wolves and a lamb deciding what to have for lunch.  And freedom being a well armed lamb contesting the vote.’   The Rule of Law is democracy as a verb, with liberty and justice for all.

The choice between these two options should not be difficult.  It is shocking how resistant people are having heaven on earth. And instead insists on an ambiguous word where a majority system dictates the laws. 

Ever wondered why our Constitution as a Democratic Republic has always had problems?   Or why no other democracy has ever been sustainable? 

 

The reality is that our US Constitution has at least ten serious flaws. And anyone of them make it unmanageable when competing in a rapidly changing and troubled world.   While there are rules for Amendments within it - at this stage of our polarized Democracy an Amendment won’t happen and a constitutional convention could lead at best to dissolution of our union. And at worse, to another civil war.  With the very real chance of another World War breaking out before that.

The greatest flaw with democracy is that ‘we the people’ of the US and the world are so different in beliefs, culture, religion, and wealth that it is would be highly likely to unite and form a consensus rule of law. As long as people hold in their mind different truths (political, religious, economic...) with the capacity to believe anything.  Literally anything!  And then kill or die to defend it .... partisan elections will always divide.  But the greatest barrier to people coming together is the belief that they are separate from other people and the environment.  And that separation will have harmful consequences in every aspect of life.  Because everything is connected, interdependent, and vulnerable.  And a global system of liberty and justice for all is the only moral, ethical, and logical path forward.  United we stand a chance.  Divided we will continue into further chaos.

 

Forging unity was accomplished with the idealism expressed in our nation’s Declaration of Independence.  It started and remained a universal document.  And those who signed it failed to keep the spirit and intent of that profound document when the created the US Constitution.  The Declaration expressed self-evident truths.  Like everyone has natural inalienable rights.  And one of those rights is to say your opinion or deeply held beliefs.  No one has the right to make others agree to the same beliefs.   And that voice is everyone’s sovereign agency to decide what rules they want to live under.  But no one is obligated to subjugate their right to a different belief.  And if people want to disagree they can. But they must agree on some rules to live by...or serious problems will likely evolve.  And without an agreed upon means of settling such problems, violence will likely result.  And people will start picking sides and war will follow.  

 That is Democracy without the Rule of Law. 

Below is ten inherent flaws in the US Constitution.  And without amending them our nation will continue to implode.  Please provide your feedback.  I may have made errors or forgotten some.   Populist movements are rising.  What solutions or self-evident truths do you have that can change this? 

Remember three things.  1) the words Abraham Lincoln wrote ‘the Declaration is our “Apple of Gold” and our Constitution it’s “Silver Frame”.  Which is more valuable to you?  2:  The earth belongs always to the living generation…not the dead. Every constitution, then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19. years. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force and not of right.”   Thomas Jefferson in a 1789 letter to James Madison    3.  Everything is connected, interdependent and vulnerable. 

Constitutional Flaws:

The earth belongs always to the living generation…not the dead. Every constitution, then, and every law, naturally expires at the end of 19. years. If it be enforced longer, it is an act of force and not of right.”   Thomas Jefferson in a 1789 letter to James Madison

1.     It was framed on top of an illusion.  The human delusion that things are independent of other things.  They can certainly be separate.  But independence is a flawed mental construct that exists nowhere in the known universe.  Only as a risky concept in our mind our speech, and our documents.

 

2.     It codifies states’ rights over human rights.  The civil war mostly changed this regarding slavery.  But most voters are still restrained by the chains of a state’s right to Gerrymander Congressional Districts.  This strips many Americans of their representation to influence the outcome of a state’s electoral college law.  So until every state changes this system that rigs the power by one partisan political party to reside over the rights of others in that state, with the state’s electoral slate deciding which Presidential candidate wins the general election (as what happened in Florida in the 2000 election determining the final outcome for all US voters) and impacting everyone in the US and the world, that is simply wrong.

 

3.      It has no justice.  If you go to trial in the US, you would be better off being rich and guilty than innocent and poor.  The one time I experienced a legal problem and lost because I didn’t have a lawyer.  I complained to the judge that the judgment was not just.   He said “we have a legal system.  Not a justice system. “ 

 

The Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C., features the following inscription on its exterior: "Equal Justice Under Law." This phrase reflects the principle of justice being applied equally to all individuals, regardless of their background or status.  This is laughable if you go to court without a good lawyer or against the US government.

 

Agent Orange was a herbicide used by the U.S. military during the Vietnam War to clear vegetation. Its use has been controversial due to its harmful effects on human health and the environment.

There was a lawsuit filed by Vietnamese citizens against several chemical companies, including Dow Chemical and Monsanto for their role in producing Agent Orange. The lawsuit alleged that these companies were responsible for the health problems and environmental damage caused by Agent Orange during the Vietnam War.  In 2004, a group of Vietnamese plaintiffs filed a class-action lawsuit in the U.S. federal court against the chemical companies. However, the case was dismissed by the court, which ruled that the chemical companies were immune from lawsuits because they were acting under the direction of the U.S. government during the war.   Despite the dismissal of this lawsuit, the issue of Agent Orange and its effects on the Vietnamese population and environment remains a contentious and unresolved issue. 

There have been legal cases related to the use of Agent Orange by U.S. military personnel and its effects on their health. One significant case was the class-action lawsuit filed by Vietnam veterans against several chemical companies that produced Agent Orange. The case was settled out of court in 1984 for $180 million, which established a fund to compensate veterans and their families affected by exposure to Agent Orange.  The Supreme Court has not issued a ruling specifically addressing the use of Agent Orange in Vietnam.

“Equal justice under law is not merely a caption on the facade of the Supreme Court building. It is perhaps the most inspiring ideal of our society. It is one of the ends for which our entire legal system exists…it is fundamental justice that should be the same, in substance and availability, without regard to economic status.”  Lewis F. Powell, Associate Justice of the Supreme Court. 

The Department of Justice building, also in Washington, D.C., bears three inscriptions:  JUSTICE IS FOUND IN THE RIGHTS BESTOWED BY NATURE UPON MAN.  LIBERTY IS MAINTAINED IN SECURITY OF JUSTICE. This is engraved into the exterior marble of the US Justice Department. 

"Justice is the great interest of man on earth.   Wherever her temple stands, there is a foundation for social security, general happiness, and the improvement and progress of our race." 

"The commonwealth endures only in proportion as the guarantees of the rights of the people are faithfully maintained."  This quote underscores the importance of upholding the rights of the people as a foundation for a strong and enduring society.  But outcomes in this court are more money dependent than just.

Summary This lack of justice in US laws (domestic and international) is simply unsustainable. 

 

4.        Zero-Sum budgeting between “Independent” agencies: Some agencies require secrecy and/or complete separation from other government agencies in competition with them.  With all agencies overlapping on different issues with different rules and priorities, this competition for the same limited financial resources essential to achieving its own departmental priorities – is simply sustainable.  And ineffective in addressing irreversible interconnected and interdependent problems with everything being vulnerable. 

 

5.       Dangerously slow weapons procurement process when competing militarily against an autocratic or dictatorial government that can change budget priorities on a dime.  This story in the Washington Post Opinion,   March 6, 2024   “Let AI remake the whole U.S. government (oh, and save the country)”    By Josh Tyrangiel      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/06/artificial-intelligence-state-of-the-union/  Detailed earlier the growing national security threat of competing with other governments weapons procurement process (both ally and enemy). Especially enemy’s that are non-democratic and not inhibited by oversight safety or environmental regulations.  This problem is more serious, larger, and applicable to our entire government management and funding system.

 

6.       Catastrophically slow and troublesome law making - or amending – a democratic system engineered intentionally into the US Constitution from its creation.   The intention was to keep a balance between the three legs of government and prevent fast reactionary laws demanded by majorities without sufficient vetting.   In a world of exponential and rapid change, unpredictable superpowered enemies with hyper speed weapons systems, and our own legislative machine increasingly paralyzed by polarized dysfunction, and political parties more committed to protecting its power than the security of our people or defending the constitution.

 

7. Democratic Republic with Lawmakers elected by a majority of ignorant voters with most votes based their personal gut feeling, party affiliation, misinformation, disinformation, conspiracy theory, special interests, self-interests, or not voting at all out of protest.  And the likelihood that only half of the voters decide to turn out at all.  Then there is the issue of each Congressional district now having over 700,000 constituents when originally there were only 20,000.  This leaves each voter with the accurate feeling that their individual vote means next to nothing.  This enables those with big money to more easily rig the rules for themselves.  Which hurts most other constituents in a zero sum budget. 

“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance. No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.” - H.L. Mencken, Notes on Democracy

"[D]emocracy will soon degenerate into an anarchy, such an anarchy that every man will do what is right in his own eyes and no man's life or property or reputation or liberty will be secure, and every one of these will soon mold itself into a system of subordination of all the moral virtues and intellectual abilities, all the powers of wealth, beauty, wit and science, to the wanton pleasures, the capricious will, and the execrable cruelty of one or a very few."   -- John Adams  (1735-1826) Founding Father, 2nd US President.   Source: An Essay on Man's Lust for Power, August 29, 1763

8.  Secrecy: This makes it virtually impossible to know the truth about what our government is doing.  Or has done with our tax dollars.  This undermines the trust of voters and the value of voting when valid signs or even accusations of corruption or waste is reported.  Secrecy also prevents citizens from holding government agencies, their leaders/policymakers accountable in a timely manner or at all, if at all.

“Everything secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show it can bear discussion and publicity.” - Lord Acton 

“The liberties of a people never were, nor ever will be, secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them.” - Patrick Henry, American colonial 

Read:  America’s Secret Government Crisis, by Patrick Eddington Posted on January 20, 2022, https://original.antiwar.com/patrick_eddington/2022/01/19/americas-secret-government-crisis

“It’s important to remember that the Constitution only mentions secrecy once, and not in connection with the executive branch but Congress – Article I, Section 5. Congress was the original arbiter of what should or should not be kept from the public, and if America’s governmental secrecy sickness is to be cured, it must reclaim that leading role.” Patrick Eddington

9. Ambiguous words and phrases in the Constitution - or with the meaning or context of those words changed over time. This has led to various altered interpretations over the years. Some of the most notable examples include:

1. "General Welfare": The Preamble of the Constitution states that one of its purposes is to "promote the general Welfare." Its meaning has been the subject of debate, with some interpreting it broadly to justify a wide range of federal government activities and others interpreting it more narrowly to limit the scope of federal power.

 

2. "Commerce": The Commerce Clause (Article I, Section 8, Clause 3) grants Congress the power to regulate interstate commerce. The meaning of "commerce" has been the subject of numerous Supreme Court cases, with the Court often expanding the definition to encompass a wide range of economic activities.

 

3. "Necessary and Proper": The Necessary and Proper Clause (Article I, Section 8, Clause 18) grants Congress the power to make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the enumerated powers. The meaning of "necessary and proper" has been debated, with some arguing that it gives Congress broad discretion to enact laws to achieve its goals, while others argue for a more limited interpretation.

 

4. "Cruel and Unusual Punishment": The Eighth Amendment prohibits the infliction of "cruel and unusual punishments." The meaning of "cruel and unusual" has evolved over time and is often subject to interpretation based on contemporary standards of decency.

 

5. "Due Process": The Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments guarantee that no person shall be deprived of "life, liberty, or property, without due process of law." The meaning of "due process" has been the subject of numerous Supreme Court cases, with the Court interpreting it to encompass both procedural and substantive rights.

 

These are just a few examples.  There are many other words and phrases in the Constitution that have been subject to interpretation and debate. 

 

SUMMARY:  You wouldn’t fly in an airplane or spacecraft engineered and constructed using with ambitious words for systems and structures it depended on to bring you back to earth safely. Why on spaceship earth (thank you Bucky Fuller!) would you believe and trust this method of engineering to work at all? 

10.         The unstoppable partisan stacking of Supreme court appointees.  This increases the loss of trust in and stability of its decisions.

CONCLUSTION:  "America does not need another political campaign based on denial and avoidance of some of our real problems. It needs a crusade to reform and renew our country, its institutions and political system." - Richard Lamm   Reform Party's nomination for President of the United States in 1996.

"I would not use the US Constitution as a template if I was creating a new constitution."    Justice Ruth Bader Ginzberg

 

 

The Declaration of Independence is the foundation of thought that uniquely represents the original American ideal.  It has inspired billions of people globally.   It represents the simple yet profound concept that government exists to ensure people’s innate freedoms and inalienable rights.  In short, securing everyone’s “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness” within the context of “the Laws of Nature and Nature’s God”.

 

“We therefore believe in liberty because we believe in the harmony of the universe, that is, in God. Proclaiming in the name of faith, formulating in the name of science, the divine laws, flexible and vital, of our dynamic moral order, we utterly reject the narrow, unwieldy, and static institutions that some men in their blindness would heedlessly introduce into this admirable mechanism.”    – George B. De Huszar

 

Sadly, many Americans have difficulty distinguishing between our Constitution and the Declaration.  Abraham Lincoln made it easy.  He wrote that our “Declaration of Independence is our Apple of Gold” and our “Constitution” its “Frame of Silver”.  A biblical reference with poetic and functional meaning.

 

"If all men are created equal, that is final.   If they are endowed with inalienable rights, that is final. If governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed, that is final. No advance, no progress can be made beyond these propositions."  Calvin Coolidge   (1872-1933) 30th US President.  Commemorating the 150th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.